When the Right Decision Defies the Numbers

Confessions of an Aging Financial Advisor: a series from Truepoint advisor John Evans

As a wealth advisor, I’ve spent decades emphasizing the importance of letting data guide financial decisions. Yet, when it came to my own mortgage, I’ve grappled with a choice that seemingly defied the numbers: whether to pay off my 2.75% interest rate mortgage early.

From a purely financial perspective, the decision to keep the mortgage and invest payoff funds makes the most sense. I’ve run countless models, all of which show that maintaining the mortgage and investing the funds would yield better financial returns. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story—they can’t account for the emotional weight of debt or the peace of mind I crave as I approach retirement. 

Mortgage… Or Market? 

Let me explain. My models are clear: the stock market’s historical average returns, even in conservative portfolios, far exceed the 2.75% interest I’m paying on my mortgage. Maintaining the mortgage while continuing to invest allows my wealth to grow significantly more over time. The financial “win” is obvious. However, during my 33-year career, I’ve learned that financial security isn’t just about maximizing wealth—it’s about living in alignment with your goals and values. And one of my values, deeply rooted, is the freedom that comes with being debt-free. 

Let’s be very clear. I am not depleting our savings to accelerate the mortgage payoff. Instead, I am redirecting excess cash flow. As our children have left the nest, most of their expenses are no longer a part of our household budget. This has freed up additional income, which we could have funneled into savings and investments to capture returns exceeding our mortgage interest rate. Mathematically, that strategy would be the optimal choice. However, emotionally, I am still confronted with the reality that our mortgage would persist well into retirement. So, I ran the numbers. The potential lost investment gains are relatively minor in the grand scheme. But what those projections fail to quantify is the emotional “winning the lottery” moment of eliminating that debt ahead of schedule. 

Planning for Peace of Mind  

The models show I don’t need to pay off my mortgage early to meet my financial goals. My retirement plan remains solid, my cash flow secure, and my investments well-positioned to grow. This decision isn’t about financial necessity—it’s about emotional clarity. The thought of carrying debt into retirement, even at a low interest rate, doesn’t sit well with me. I’ve advised many clients over the years to consider their emotional relationship with debt, and now I’m taking my own advice to heart. 

Though I haven’t yet made the final payment, I know that the moment I do will be liberating. I can’t quantify the feeling of knowing that our home will be entirely ours or the relief of removing one more “what if” from my retirement planning. Yes, I may leave potential investment returns on the table, but I will gain something invaluable: peace of mind. And while peace of mind doesn’t show up in financial projections, it’s every bit as important when you’re charting the course for your future. 

This experience has reminded me that personal finance is just that—personal. It’s not always about squeezing out the highest possible return; it’s about balancing the math with what truly matters to you. For me, paying off my mortgage early aligns with my goal of entering retirement without the shadow of debt. That sense of freedom is worth more to me than the extra dollars my portfolio might earn. 

Ultimately, this decision reaffirms a lesson I’ve learned time and again as a wealth advisor: the best financial choices aren’t always the most “optimal” on paper. They’re the ones that align with your values, priorities, and the life you want to live. So, if you’re grappling with a similar decision, I encourage you to look beyond the spreadsheets and ask yourself: What brings you the greatest sense of security and fulfillment? Sometimes, the most valuable returns aren’t the ones measured in percentages.